The nominees are Ron Howard (“A Beautiful Mind”), Ridley Scott (“Black Hawk Down”), Robert Altman (“Gosford Park”), Peter Jackson (“Lord of the Rings”) and David Lynch (“Mullolland Drive”).

Adam Duerson: This is probably the least interesting of the awards to me this year — but then again, it’s that sort of a “lesser of five evils” thing. I won’t pretend I haven’t put way too much time into thinking about it. To me, the director’s announcement will be the only time in the whole friggin’ show (with the exception of “Jimmy Neutron” winning best animated pic) where you can’t surprise me. Anyone, from the Hollywood hack (Howard) to the geeky Harry Knowles look-alike (yeah, eat it LOTR fans!), could win, and there’s no way I’ll be surprised. Nothing’s shocking this year.

Anna Roberts: Thanks for that insightful, specific statement. Hopefully the limb on which you sit doesn’t break under the weight of your intense cinematic knowledge. Hack or not, Howard made a great film, as did Jackson. Lynch and his ever creepy film fare dazzled as much as it confused, so he’s down for the count. Scott takes the token war-film-in-war-time nom, but it won’t yield any results. Altman may surprise some as he did at the Golden Globes, but I would have liked to have seen Christopher Nolan get in there for “Memento,” or Baz Lurhman for “Moulin Rouge.”

AD: My best guess (although I wasn’t there — I was too busy working, not riding off my undeserved childhood fame) is that “Beautiful Mind” was great (is that a stretch? I’m starting to think so) not because Howard directed it so well, but because he sat back a lot and said: “Um, yeah. Good job Russell. Good job.” Crowe’s one of those actors whose presence goes beyond just his acting — it extends into the look of the film. He’s not a guy to sit back and let someone else screw up his performance (see his BAFTA temper tantrum). I think you’ve discounted Lynch and Scott too quickly, although their non-nominations for their pic don’t support a win in their case historically.

AR: Whoa, settle down there cowpoke. History, as Sting suggests, will teach us nothing. Just last year, Scott’s “Gladiator” won the pic while Steven Soderbergh took the director trophy. I don’t see a reversal happening here, though. Lynch is not Oscar-ceremony friendly, especially with good ol’ Opey hanging around without director gold on his mantle yet and with such a fine film. Russ’s row only helps Ron’s case in that he got the machismo man to be so wimpy and the fact he duped us all with the storytelling.

AD: Here’s the easiest, most logical way to do this. Altman’s out ‘cuz he HATES Hollywood, and the Oscars ARE Hollywood. Peter Jackson’s out ‘cuz he’s a hideous goblin and we don’t want to see more than the occasional two-second pan across him in the audience. Scott won last year for a BAD movie. Payback time. He loses for a good one. So it comes down to the eternal coin flip between Lynch and Howard. Heads, Howard wins. I groan. My cynicism grows tenfold.

AR: Howard will win not because George Wash rears his head on the last quarter you have in your bank account, but because “A Beautiful Mind” was a good, easy film. Everything else is too complicated for the Academy. Yucky war. Icky, mind-bending story. The only guy I see having a semi-shot is Jackson.

AD: Gee, you’ve made it so easy for me. Yes, “A Beautiful Mind” was an easy film. That’s why he shouldn’t win. There I go again, though, thinking that things happen the way they should in the Oscars. Opie’ll win, but he’s the only one who doesn’t deserve to.

AR: I hear what you’re saying, but I disagree. Any of the five men deserve it, and let’s just pause a minute to see they are five MEN…but in the end it will be Ron’s shiny white head next to Oscar’s shiny gold head, and that is all right by me.